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INRA
24, chemin de Borde Rouge –Auzeville – CS52627
31326 Castanet Tolosan CEDEX - France

Dernière mise à jour : Mai 2018

Menu Logo Principal Europe Framework programme 7 - People Marie Curie Actions

TRANZFOR programme (2009-2012) - Transferring Research between EU and Australia-New Zealand on Forestry and Climate Change

Workpackage 4 - Risk assessment

Assess main abiotic (wind, fire, drought) and biotic (pest insects, pathogens) risks under changing climate, and develop simulation tools to evaluate the sensitivity of forests to hazards under alternative management strategies, integration of risk management in Sustainable Forest Management.

Exchange knowledge and methodologies for investigating the risk to forests from abiotic (wind, fire, drought) and biotic (pest insects, pathogens) agents, how these are likely to be affected by changing climate and how to better integrate risks in forest management. The exchanges will in particular help to develop: a) a meta-analysis of past climate events effects on forest health, b) models predicting changes in spatial distribution, and impacts on tree growth of forest pests and pathogens under scenarios of climate changes, c) wind risks simulations relying on the use of mechanistic simulations of wind flow over complex forested landscapes and biomechanical models for tree motions in turbulent environments, d) risk analyses combining hazard occurrence, forest vulnerability and exposure in order to evaluate risk of losses in forest productivity, e) assessment of future forest fire regimes and landscapes responses under possible scenarios of climate change impacts. Contrasting the situation in Europe and Australasia (Australia and New Zealand) will be extremely valuable because different risks are more prevalent in different regions. Therefore, Europe has extensive experience of dealing with wind damage risk whereas Australia has extensive experience with fire risk. Cross studies of forest pest and pathogens from different hemispheres will also help to predict risk of alien species invasion and to develop methods to determine changes in risk from pests and diseases that could increase due to greater suitability of climatic conditions.

Description of work

Activities will include staff exchange, joint research and networking, and will be organised in five separate tasks and corresponding exchanges that will help to develop:
  1. meta-analysis of past climate events effects on forest health

  2. models predicting changes in spatial distribution, and impacts on tree growth of forest pests and pathogens under scenarios of climate changes

  3. wind risks simulations relying on the use of mechanistic simulations of wind flow over complex forested landscapes and biomechanical models for tree motions in turbulent environments

  4. multiple risk analyses combining hazard occurrence, forest vulnerability and exposure in order to evaluate risk of losses in forest productivity

  5. assessment of future forest fire regimes and landscapes responses under possible scenarios of climate change impacts

Researchers involved

Partner 1 (INRA):
  • H Jactel, Y Brunet, S Dupont, ML Loustau

Partner 2 (FR):
  • H Evans, D Wainhouse, B Gardiner

Partner 3 (ISA):
  • F Catry, F Rego, F Moreira, M Branco

Partner 4 (CSIRO):
  • L Pinkard, J Finningan, J Gould, C Mohamed

Partner 5 (SCION):
  • S Anderson, M Watt, E Brockerhoff, O Chikumbo

Deliverables

  • D4.1: joint contribution at 2009 Forest Biosecurity Conference (yr 1)

  • D4.2: joint seminar at International Conference on Forest Fire Research (yr 2)

  • D4.3, 4.4, 4.5, 4.6, 4.7: joint publications on (1) effects of past climatic events on forest health, (2) pest and pathogens models, (3) wind risk simulations, (4) multiple risk analysis, (5) future forest fire regimes and landscapes responses (yrs 2, 3, 4).